I did some graphs for work on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and decided to share some of the data. Thinking inflation will rise with the coming recession? Note the changes during our last "recession" of 2001-2002. Some of the data points didn't go back to the 90s recession. But maybe I'll do those next. Usually there is a lag with inflation relative to the actual recession.
A note about the CPI - unless otherwise noted in the graphs, the base is 1982-1984 = 100. Meaning, the item cost "100" in that base period. Meaning if something is 190 now, that's 90% inflation.
I think the most interesting stats are the auto-related and consumer/education graph. Cars/Trucks have had virtually no inflation since the base years, while gasoline and auto insurance have skyrocketed. Education (college tuition in this comparison) has also increased dramatically.
On energy: the "energy" index includes fuel/gas, while electricity is broken out on it's own in the graph. I did this to show that energy costs are going up - relative to fossil fuel costs. This is a "duh" thing, I know... but I included it anyway. If you look to the gasoline index in the auto-related graph, you can see that the "energy" index pretty much mirrors the gasoline index.
The medical one is suspect to me as I've looked at the medical insurance premium inflation rates and they are incredibly high - unfortunately they didn't start tracking it until 2005, making it useless to put on the graph. But if I had it would be about 2x as high as the actual COST of healthcare/medications.
Shelter: There are many ways to measure this. "Shelter" is the index of all shelter costs. "Rent" is is the rent of primary residence for renters. "Rent of shelter" is used to calculate housing costs for owner occupied housing.
Enjoy and please comment. It's nice to see facts amidst all of the chaos and talk of inflation/deflation/stagflation - pick your poison.
Your friendly neighborhood economist,
Yesteryear
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This is a thrill to wake up to on a Saturday morning!
1I don't understand why auto insurance rates have skyrocketed - I can guess why the cost of prescription medication has grown faster than physician services, but why have dental costs climbed more than medical? Rents in West LA are a nightmare. Six years ago, I worked with a Head Start program that had 14 schools in the area - they're down to five because so many poor family have been forced to move somewhere less expensive.
Thanks YY, I feel like a groundhog that stuck its head out and came face to face with Freddy Krueger.
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